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1.0 Introduction介绍
自2007年底以来，世界经历了一系列重大事件，包括：次贷危机的发生、欧洲债务危机的发生、新兴市场经济体经济发展放缓、大宗货物价格大幅下跌、石油价格上涨等。ES等，这些事件的发生对世界经济的发展造成了威胁，也标志着世界经济进入了衰退周期（Acharya和Richardson，2010）。衰退持续时间长，影响大，衰退规模大（Astley、Giese、Hume和Kubelec，2009年）。直到今天，世界经济复苏的前景仍然不明朗，面临许多风险。经济衰退的原因是多方面的，包括政府的经济政策、人民的生活方式、科学技术的发展、经济周期和许多其他密切相关的因素（Baily、Litan和Johnson，2008年）。了解经济衰退的原因，对于思考全球经济如何摆脱衰退具有重要的参考价值。本文分析了这些原因，并简要介绍了如何走出经济衰退。
Since the end of 2007, the world has undergone a series of major events, including: the occurrence of the subprime mortgage crisis, the occurrence of the debt crisis in Europe, the slowdown in the economic development of emerging market economies, a sharp drop in bulk cargo prices, such as oil prices, etc., the occurrence of these events have created a threat to the development of the world economy, which also marks that the world economy has entered a recession cycle (Acharya and Richardson, 2010). The recession lasted for a long time, with great influence and great scale of recession (Astley, Giese, Hume and Kubelec, 2009). Until today, the outlook for the world economic recovery remains unclear and faces many risks. The causes of this recession are multifaceted, including the government's economic policy, the people's way of life, the development of science and technology, the economic cycle and many other closely related factors (Baily, Litan and Johnson, 2008). Understanding the causes of the recession has an important reference for thinking about how the global economy can escape from the recession. This essay analyzes these reasons and briefly recommends on how to get out of this recession.
2.0 Main body主体
2.1 Unbalanced economic structure经济结构不平衡
20世纪60年代以来，美国主导的发达国家调整了产业结构，将部分汽车、机械等制造业转移到其他欠发达地区，利用当地资源优势进行生产加工（Green，King和Miller-Dawkins，2010）。例如，在美国，以金融、保险、房地产和租赁服务为代表的虚拟经济产出所占份额从1950年的8.63%上升到2007年的20.67%，以制造业、建筑业和运输业为代表的实体经济所占GDP所占份额也有所上升。从1950年的41.25%下降到2007年的18.70%（Taylor，2009年）。发达国家制造业衰退和虚拟经济过度发展导致的经济结构不平衡预示着经济衰退，首先从虚拟经济的投资需求来看，它远远弱于虚拟经济。在传统产业中，虚拟经济对经济发展的拉动作用相对较弱（Green，King和Miller-Dawkins，2010）。第二，随着美国和其他发达国家国内制造业的萎缩，他们的商品消费越来越依赖进口，导致这些国家经常账户收支状况持续恶化（贝利、利坦）以及Johnson，2008年）。最后，制造业大幅度转移，大量资金投入金融市场和房地产市场，以金融和保险服务为代表的虚拟经济，房地产业快速发展，带动经济发展。同时，泡沫的最终破裂导致了经济衰退（Astley、Giese、Hume和Kubelec，2009年）。
From the 1960s, the US-led developed countries adjusted the industrial structure to transfer some automobile, machinery and other manufacturing industries to other underdeveloped areas, making use of advantages of local resources for production and processing (Green, King and Miller-Dawkins, 2010). In the United States, for example, the share of virtual economy output represented by finance, insurance, real estate and leasing services increased from 8.63% in 1950 to 20.67% in 2007, and the share of GDP created by the real economy represented by manufacturing, construction and transportation fell from 41.25% in 1950 to 18.70% in 2007 (Taylor, 2009). The unbalanced economic structure caused by the recession of the manufacturing industry in the developed countries and the excessive development of virtual economy has foreshadowed the recession, because first, considering from the demand for investment in virtual economy, it was far weaker than that of traditional industries, the pulling effect of virtual economy on the economic development was relatively weak (Green, King and Miller-Dawkins, 2010). Second, with the shrinking domestic manufacturing in the United States and other developed countries, their consumption of goods was increasingly dependent on imports, resulting in the continued deterioration of the current account revenue and expenditure situation in these countries (Baily, Litan and Johnson, 2008). Finally, the manufacturing industry has been substantially transferred, a large number of funds were invested in the financial market and the real estate market, the virtual economy represented by the financial and insurance services, real estate industry developed rapidly, driving the economic development and leading to a virtual economic bubble at the same time, final rupture of the bubble led to a recession (Astley, Giese, Hume and Kubelec, 2009).
2.2 Aging society
The trend of population aging will reduce the potential economic growth rate (Felix and Watkins, 2013). Globally, the world-wide aging dependent ratio was 16 in 2010, that is, every 16 elderly people over the age of 65 correspond to 100 25- to 64-year-old workers, and the United Nations estimates that in 2035, the aging dependent ratio will rise to 26. In accordance with the standards of the United Nations, the population aging in the next few years will lead to 1/3 to 1/2 of economic slowdown in developed countries (Lin, Chen, Tsao and Hsu, 2017). The cause of the recession arising from aging is that, first of all, there is a significant increase in social welfare spending, and in some high-welfare developed countries, they are even at risk of bankruptcy of social security funds (Felix and Watkins, 2013); second, in aging society, there is the shortage of employees in employment, labor costs increase, dragging down the development of enterprises; finally, the aging society leads to the lack of social economic vitality, lack of innovation and lack of demand (Felix and Watkins, 2013).
2.3 Technological change
Total-factors productivity growth rate refers to the part of production capacity still increased when the input of the total production factors (including capital, labor, land, but usually, land is omitted in analysis) are unchanged, sources of total-factors productivity include technological progress, organizational innovation, specialization and production innovation (Ucaktürk, Bekmezci and Ucaktürk, 2011). Research results showed that global total-factors productivity (TFP) has been declining since 1980 (Petrakis, Kostis and Valsamis, 2015). Taking the global science and technology power: the United States as an example, during 1962-2004, the average TFP was 1.75%, during 2005-2014, it was only 0.875%, and it is expected that in the future world, TFP will continue to decline, the results show that role of technological change in promoting the economy is gradually weakening, indicating that the number of the world economy is growing and the quality has not been improved (Petrakis, Kostis and Valsamis, 2015). At the end of the 1990s, the pace of technological change was slowing down, and in many industries, the costs replaced technology and became the source of competitive advantage of enterprises. In order to gain the cost advantage, all the relevant countries had invested huge sums of money to expand the scale of production (Ucaktürk, Bekmezci and Ucaktürk, 2011). However, duplication of similar projects on the one hand wasted huge amounts of money, on the other hand, it caused excessive competition, triggering malicious competition and trade war to drag down economic development. This is particularly evident in many industries such as shipbuilding, steel, solar, panel and other industries.
2.4 Excessive consumption
Excessive consumption of consumers in developed countries, especially in the United States is one of the reasons for the economic recession, in order to stimulate economic development, the government has developed a series of systems to encourage consumers to consume in advance, excessive consumption will bring good to short-term economic development, but excessive consumption will temporarily stimulate the supply, so that the supply will grow extraordinarily (Kukk, 2016). However, once people spend all their money, or bear heavy debt, the economic bubble will burst, the demand will be weakened. Thus the extraordinary supply stimulated by the excessive consumption formed the so-called overproduction crisis, which was performed as deflation in price.
2.5 Increased gap between the rich and the poor
From the consumer demand point of view, the increased gap between the rich and the poor has a direct impact on the economy and makes the overall consumer propensity reduced, and thus inhibiting the consumer demand (Acharya and Richardson, 2010). A French economist conducted a detailed study on wage wealth in the past 300 years in his "21st Century Capital", proving that as the return of investment is higher than the economic growth rate, the wealth of rich people’s will be increased faster, despite those who have assets and those who do not have can both make their wealth increase, but the gap between the rich and the poor has become very large, they further suggested that the gap between the rich and the poor in the world has deteriorated and will continue to deteriorate in recent decades (Green, King and Miller-Dawkins, 2010). |
