对联广告,古代寄居蟹化石,仪铭
|
In such a game, the two sides cut prices for the maximization of their own interests, but the result is not worth the loss. Therefore, this maximizing behavior is a damage of other sides’ profits at the expense of damaging its own interests. The result at this time is not only the dissatisfaction of aviation and high-speed rail, but also the more importantly, the government is even more dissatisfied, because all the assets of aviation and high-speed rail are state-owned assets, and the result of the game between the two is actually leading to the loss of state-owned assets.
Since the rapid development of China's high-speed rail, in order to attract more consumers as soon as possible, the high-speed rail continues to improve service quality, and the high-speed rail fare continues to decrease, and the management level of high-speed rail is also improving (Courty, 2003). The income of high-speed rail has brought huge impact on the aviation industry. In order to compete for the market, high-speed rail and aviation have implemented price cuts in disguise, and in some local areas, there have even experienced vicious price competition events. From the overall perspective of the transportation industry, the government has introduced a series of measures to control the price war between the two sides. But can the high-speed rail and aviation industry really avoid cutting prices? According to the theory of game theory, this is impossible, because the current high-speed rail and civil aviation fares are higher than their respective unit costs, and now China’s high-speed rail and airline fares are far from falling to the marginal cost of the two, the high-speed rail and airlines will continue to reduce prices in the foreseeable future, the two sides will use discounts, concessions, and many means to reduce prices in disguise. These disguised means are to make the price reduction behavior more concealed, when their competitor keeps its prices unchanged, they get the most benefit, but since the two operators are playing the same strategy, both of them try to get more benefits by reducing the price in disguise, which makes the newly established balance broken and they continue to suffer losses. We know that only when the price of high-speed rail and airlines falls to the same level as the marginal cost, the market will reach a stable equilibrium. At this time, no additional profit is available to both parties, the market is close to a perfectly competitive market, and consumers are the biggest beneficiary. This is not a good thing for the long-term interests and sustainable development of high-speed rail and airlines. As the result of the price war, it has made the aviation industry and high-speed rails miserable, the next consideration for the two industries must be to find a competitive strategy to get rid of such prisoners' dilemmas.
2.4 Equilibrium price
In the high-speed rail and civil aviation market of the Wuhan-Guangzhou line, in the face of impact of fast and relatively cheap high-speed railway, civil aviation companies have to compress capacity to ensure profits. At present, the price of the first-class seat of high-speed rail between Wuhan and Guangzhou is 738.5 yuan (RMB, similarly hereinafter), the price of second-class seat is 463.5 yuan, the average fare is 518.5 yuan, and the price of civil aviation ticket of the same distance is about 675 yuan, about 50% of the full price, coupled with various taxes and fees of 80 yuan, the total cost is about 755 yuan.
Under the premise that in the future, fare fluctuations may be carries out when market operation and income management of high-speed railway is implemented, airlines will encounter greater market pressure, in order to ensure greater market share and more revenue. With the LINGO software, Shao (2015) used fare, driving speed and punctuality rate as parameters to construct a model of game between high-speed rail and air fares, showing that the optimal fare for high-speed railway is designed to be an average of 482 yuan (685.5 yuan for first-class seats and 431 yuan for second-class seats). The best fare for civil aviation is about 610 yuan. If other external factors remain constant, the high-speed rail and civil aviation have no incentive to change their fares under this balanced fare combination.
Actual fare Balanced fare
High-speed rail 518.5 482
Aviation 675 610
Difference 156.5 128
Table 2 Actual fare & Balanced fare (Shao, 2015)
At present, the average fare of the high-speed rail in China is 518.5 yuan, and the equilibrium price is 482 yuan. The full price of civil aviation tickets of the Wuhan-Guangzhou route is 1,350 yuan, and the current average discount is 5%: 675 yuan. The equilibrium fare is 610 yuan, which is about 4.5% of the full price, which slightly lower than the actual fare.
At present, the average fare difference between the high-speed rail and the civil aviation actually is 156.5 yuan (RMB). The difference between the two in the balanced fare combination is 128 yuan. It shows that the gap between high-speed rail and air fare in reality is 28.5 yuan larger than the equilibrium price gap.
This result shows that from the perspective of equilibrium price difference, the fare of civil aviation is still high, and there is room for downward adjustment. As for the current fare of high-speed rail, the fare of China Southern Airlines is reduced from 675 to 646.5 yuan, which is appropriate. Of course, if the fare of high-speed rail continues to fall, then China Southern Airlines will maintain its own fare at a price of 128 yuan more than the fare of the high-speed rail, namely, the equilibrium price. This is theoretically reasonable.
Compared with civil aviation and other modes of transportation, high-speed railways are high-speed, fast-moving, and there is not much difference in the utility and value of the two. The reduction in fare difference can be effectively preventing the imbalance caused by passengers’ being inclined to a certain mode of transportation due to the unfair price gap in the transportation market.
According to the equilibrium fare, the profit of high-speed rail and civil aviation are 0.451 yuan/person kilometer (the cost is 0.324 yuan//person kilometer) and 0.686 yuan/person kilometer (the cost is 0.45 yuan//person kilometer) respectively, which are higher than their respective unit costs. Under the balanced fare combination, both the high-speed rail and the civil aviation can obtain a certain positive return.
2.5 Recommendation
2.5.1 Price adjustment
From the above calculation of the balanced fare, it can be seen that in order to cope with the fare fluctuation of the high-speed rail, the average fare of the ticket of the Wuhan-Guangzhou route can be reduced from 675 yuan to 610 yuan to reach the equilibrium fare. Because high-speed railway and air transportation are high-quality modes of transportation, they all have similar characteristics of emphasis on service and fast delivery. The target customer groups of the two are similar in their demand for transportation products. After the price hike of the high-speed rail, in most cases, the fare will be properly lowered to increase the attendance rate, which will inevitably impact airlines’ revenue. Therefore, civil aviation must also reduce prices accordingly. However, proper price reduction means that civil aviation needs to grasp the price reduction range, which is neither unprofitable nor will it cause a more violent price war from the high-speed railway.
2.5.2 Frequent flyer program
Frequent flyer program is a major feature of airline operations and competition (Sehipper, Nijkamp and Rietveld, 2007). It promotes the means of accumulating mileage or points and rewarding mileage and gifts to passengers who frequently take a company's flights (Anjos, Cheng and Currie, 2004). This is a unique means for airlines to attract business travelers and improve their competitiveness. Frequent flyers are mostly business travelers, they are not sensitive to price, and have a lifetime value, thus they are one of airlines’ most important sources of profit. High speed railway in this respect is difficult to have natural conditions to compete with airlines. Therefore, airlines should continue to improve the frequent flyer program, provide personalized services for their high-net-worth customers, and build a barrier for themselves in price competition.
2.5.3 Competition and cooperation
Civil aviation and high-speed rail are not completely competitive. In general, there is a kind of competing relationship between high-speed rail and civil aviation. They cooperate in competition and compete in cooperation. Both parties must seize the same source of customers in similar markets and bring a large amount of transportation demand to each other. From the perspective of maximizing social welfare, high-speed rail and civil aviation need to rationally distribute passenger flow according to the network coverage and infrastructure construction of both parties, and reach a memorandum on price adjustment to avoid vicious competition.
2.5.4 Improving service
In addition to price, there are many influencing factors that affect passengers’ choosing transportation modes, such as service level, speed, comfort, on-time rate, and personal preference. Air transportation has always been distinctive and special in the transportation system since its extensive use. It has a natural speed advantage and a service reputation that has been maintained for many years. These external factors can reduce the price sensitivity of passengers. In terms of the punctuality rate and convenience that may be weaknesses judged by passengers, civil aviation needs to be strengthened by strengthening management and adopting multi-channel ferry. |
