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US consumer sentiment weakens as fiscal crisis looms
位于华盛顿的美国消费者信心指数下跌更比十二月预计12月份降幅大于预期，创四个月低点作为一个迫在眉睫的财政危机削弱了什么已经对经济的乐观情绪越发强烈。
其他数据昨日强调的积极势头建设在经济，美国人填充到近四和年半低点新屋销售创下自2010年4月的最高水平的数量。
消费者也担心出现，对所谓的“财政悬崖”可能咬成家庭支出的迹象的担忧。会议委员会，一个行业组织说，它的消费观念指数从71.5比上月下降65.1。
分类指数衡量消费者如何看待自己的现状上升到最高水平四年多的时间，但对未来信心的计下跌的最低点在一年多的时间。
美国劳工部称，上周12000初始失业救济人数下降至经季节性调整的350,000“消费者与潜在损害的财政悬崖与事业的经济和自己的钱包日益关注，如果不尽快达成协议，”苏格兰皇家银行在康涅狄格州斯坦福德的经济学家，写在一份研究报告。
WASHINGTON-United States consumer confidence fell more than expected in December fell more than expected in December, hitting a four-month low as a looming fiscal crisis sapped what had been a growing sense of optimism about the economy.
The report heightened concerns that a failure by Washington to avert planned tax hikes and spending cuts could lead households to close their wallets, threatening an economic recovery that has been steady albeit lackluster.
Other data yesterday highlighted the positive momentum building in the economy, with the number of Americans filling to a nearly four-and-half year low new home sales hitting their highest level since April 2010.
Consumers also appear apprehensive, a sign worries about the so-called “fiscal cliff” could bite into household spending. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 65.1 from 71.5 last month.
A sub-index measuring how consumers feel about their present situation rose to its highest level in more than four years, but a gauge of sentiment about the future plunged to its lowest point in more than a year.
THE US Labour Department said initial for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 350,000,“Consumers are increasingly preoccupied with the potential damage the fiscal cliff with cause to the economy and to their wallets if a deal is not reached soon,” economists at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note.
1.0 Introduction介绍
Since 2008, the international financial crisis, the world economy is entered the volatile and full of suspense new stage, has also not peace. 2012 is the debt crisis repeated fermentation, spreads so as to influence the world economic recovery a years. In 2013, the world economy is still not peace, there are many uncertain factors, will in many difficulties to slow recovery. Recently, I saw a report, the United States consumer confidence abate cause financial crisis. I think this is one of the uncertain factors, and the world economic recovery, need to face these problems. Of course I think consumer confidence abate is not only the United States.
2.0 Consumer confidence消费者信心指数
Consumer confidence, also some people called the consumer mood, it is to point to consumer according to the national or regional economic development situation, to employment, income, price, interest rate the problems such as synthetic judgment from a point and expected. In many countries, consumer confidence measure is considered to be the necessary supplement consumption.
We can see from the report, consumer confidence fell to 65.1 from 71.5 last month low nearly 6 point, it is enough to make many economists flabbergasted things.
Consumer confidence is mainly to understand consumer confidence in the economic environment of strength, reflecting the consumer to economic attitudes and buying intention. The data including both consumers to economic situation and job market evaluation, but also for future economic and employment market expectations, as well as the relevant family income and whether he plans to buy a house, cars, etc. The problem of consumer goods. Through sampling survey, the response to the current and future consumer six months of economic boom, the employment situation and personal financial situation feelings and views. In the United States, the economic counselor will consumer research center, the national family view by the company to the United States a month about 5000 families after investigation, it is concluded that the statistical data. The survey from the beginning of 1969. Respondents mainly will be asked to "the present economic boom condition", "the present employment situation" feeling, make "good", "ordinary" or "bad" view, at the same time for "six months after economic boom condition", "six months after the employment situation", and "after six months income" and so on, and show that "will be better", "and now the same" or "worse" view. For each question different views proportional increase or decrease the trend of key is to observe.
2.1 Influence
In the economic cycle, consumer confidence is considered as the economic strength and indicators, and the current business conditions have a high correlation. Analysis shows that the index and consumer spending weak correlation, and the state of the economy and unemployment have strong lag indicators of negative correlation. From the reports we learned that consumer confidence drops, it represents a willingness to spend is not strong, the possibility of improving economy slows.
Consumer confidence drops, what is the reason? We can see from this report a word: financial cliff. I think this is an important consumer confidence down one of the reasons.
3.0 Financial cliff财政悬崖
Financial cliff, in order to raise taxes and the two policy stack together, make the government finances collapsing, and the United States financial deficit is closely tied to the debt problems. President barrack Obama is re-elected in success, to be faced with a difficult problem is America's fiscal cliff. The power will reach the scale of 800 billion dollars; the emergence of financial cliff will inevitably lead to the American economic activities into extreme atrophy.
3.1 Economic situation
The so-called "fiscal cliff", by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke in on February 7, 2012, in the congressional hearing this paper proposes for the first time, it is to point to the United States in January 1, 2013 at the same time appear tax increases and spending reduce situation. If both parties in congress in 2012 can't reach an agreement to avoid this situation, in order to increase tax measures will be effective, in 2013 the United States will increase revenue of $532 billion, and at the same time reduce the $136 billion government spending.
The congressional budget office in November of 2012 8 said in a report, if congress can't stop "fiscal cliff" appeared, in 2013 the United States real GDP will decline 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2013, and the unemployment rate will rise to 9.1%.
The report said the analysis; the abolition of automatic minus red mechanism will make the U.S. economy in 2013 about 0.8%, and improve delay the bush administration's tax cuts will make economic growth around 1.4%. Both at the same time will improve GDP2.2 %, but at the same time lead to increase fiscal deficit of $395 billion.
The report also pointed out that, even completely eliminate the "fiscal cliff" threat, a period of economic growth in the United States will still be less than its potential growth rate, and the unemployment rate will be higher than normal. The next decade the federal government debt will continue to expand; this will increase the financial risk.
Congressional budget office had earlier report said; "fiscal cliff" will lead to the U.S. economy in the first half of 2013 slump recession.
3.2 Influence the world economy
The world is now the focus U.S. Treasury cliff, I think it is not only the United States, if the United States is unable to take corresponding measures and policies; this not only affects the consumer confidence so simple, and at the same time will affect the entire American economy, and even the world economy. Because of this the countries all over the world will pay close attention to and report, the latest situation of the fiscal cliff.
Economists warned, if could not cross the word cliff, the United States and the global economy could be dragged into "secondary recession abyss. The budget office expected, once "drop cliff", congress budget cuts and increased taxation policy will be in January 2013 to be automatic to take effect, in the first half of 2013 the economy will fall into recession, the economic growth by 0.5%, and the unemployment rate up to 9%. Of homes in this tax will increase.
In China, for example, the United States financial cliff will give China's economy brought the influence. China's economy is expected to slow over the main reason is export lack of power. If the financial cliff on the U.S. economy has caused a serious drag, will influence the demand for goods made in China, so as to give China's export add shadow. Financial cliff against the United States economic recovery, the federal reserve QE3 or will be continuously, which injected large us dollar liquidity will not only stay in the United States, will also promote international gold, crude oil, food and commodity prices rise, a new turn against China will keep the price level in the low post. This would also to a certain extent, stimulate the hot money inflows. At present, China has the federal government bonds of about 1.1 trillion us dollars, accounting for the federal government debt, which accounts for 7.6% of the total amount of China's foreign currency reserves 35.1% of the total. Financial cliff increased China's foreign currency reserves the difficulty of the value of its assets, but also to reserve assets, bring more depreciation risk. I want to similar to this problem, in the United States financial cliff background, not only to the Chinese economy influenced. |
