留学生市场专业作业Emerging Markets Growth : Its Sources and Consequences
Introduction
Need to explore the economic growth, its causes and consequences: Ref: Ajit Singh papers of 1994, 1995 and 1997b.
Context of Lecture
ChinaPopulation of 1 billion.1980’s rate of expansion 10%.1990’s outpaced Korea.USAAdvanced economy.Better employment record than Europe.Productivity growth and real wage growth is slower. East AsiaMain focus of lecture.
East Asia Economic Growth
1950’s Time CheckJapan produced less than 5 million tonnes of crude steel and 30,000 motor vehicles per annum.USA produced 90 million tonnes of steel and 7 million automobiles.1970 Time CheckJapan steel production equaled USA and overtook Germany as world’s largest exporter of cars.1980 Time CheckJapan overtook USA as largest producer of automobiles in world. Also, note the growth of South Korea and Taiwan.
Key Points
1980 - 1994East Asia was most dynamic region in the world.High Performance Economies:Hong Kong , Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and China.Geographically and Analytical Divide:North East AsiaSouth East AsiaNE and SE Asia have seen long term economic growth.
Result of Success in East Asia
An increase in the average standard of living.A decrease in levels of poverty.Increase in real wages. e.g. on average over 5% p.a.Increase in the level of employment.Led in some countries to a labour shortage.Immigration from low income nations.Manufacturing employment figures rose by 6%.WHY ? [See World Bank Studies of 1991 and 1993.
World Bank Traditional View - Total Factor Productivity(TFP)
Conventional Economic Theory on Growth:Growth of labour input.Growth of capital input.Increase in productivity of both capital and labour.
World Bank Traditional View - Total Factor Productivity(TFP)
Causal Effect:Technical progress.Economies of scale.Improvement in quality of inputs.Limitations:Entirely “supply-led”.Assumes full employment & full utilisation of resources.Assumption of added effect.
essay Economic growth is determined by TFP.Changes of TFP come from economic policy:openness of an economyextent of competitioninvestment in physical and human capitalCompetition and Education promote Technical progress and TFP growth therefore Economic Expansion.
* Market-friendly development strategy. * Apply checks and balances. * Intervene openly. * State provides social, legal and economic infrastructure. * Openness and Close Integration with the World Economy. http://www.szdhsjt.com/marketing/
Alwyn Young’s (1994) Study on TFP between 1960 - 1985.Suggests the Asian Miracle is hyped.Paul Krugmann (1994) Argument.Investment already 35 to 40% of GDP.Highly educated workforce already.High quality labour force.Academic economists do not accept the growth accounting framework.
Market-Friendly - Fact or fiction ?[Look at Japan; S Korea; Taiwan.Think about Openness ?Readings : Chakravawty & Singh 1998Singh 1996b - ChinaThe Economist, 28 Nov 92, p16Singh 1995b, 1997a and 1997c - USA |
