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| 导读: 这是一篇金融学essay范文，讨论了货币与产出。在对于长期货币与产出关系的讨论中，研究者们存在了较大的分歧，有一些研究者对于将近30个国家的货币供应量、通货膨胀率和产出水平进行实证研究后发现，长期范围内货币供应量和产出水平之间并没有很明显的相关性。但是另外一部分研究者却认为长期内货币与产出之间有较为明显的相关性。大家在对美国自19世纪以来的月度数据研究发现，货币供应的变化能够对产出水平的变化进行很好的解释。 The debate about whether money is neutral has its origins abroad. The representative of the classical economic school is said, who believes that money is only a medium of exchange of goods without any influence on the level of output. With the outbreak of the economic crisis in the 1930s, the classic Keynesian works represented by the general theory of employment, interest and money were published. He advocated that the government promote economic growth by expanding policies and increasing aggregate demand. In the 1960s, monetarists, as well as Karl e. Walsh in monetary policy and general theory, came to a similar conclusion that changes in the money supply in the short term would affect the level of output. 关于“货币是否中立”的争论起源于国外。据说古典经济学派的代表认为，货币只是货物交换的媒介，对产出水平没有任何影响。随着20世纪30年代经济危机的爆发，出版了以就业，利息和金钱的一般理论为代表的经典凯恩斯主义作品。他主张政府通过扩大政策和增加总需求来促进经济增长。在20世纪60年代，货币主义者，以及卡尔e。沃尔什在货币政策和一般理论中得出了类似的结论，短期内货币供应的变化会影响产出水平。 In the discussion of the long-term relationship between money and output, foreign researchers have great differences. What is representative is Mc warm et al's empirical research on the money supply, inflation rate and output level of nearly 30 countries found that there was no obvious correlation between money supply and output level in a long-term range. Friedman and kuttner came to the same conclusion in their study of the relationship between money supply and output over the long term. But the opposite view holds that there is a clear correlation between money and output over the long term. Using monthly data from the United States since the 19th century, Davis et al. found that changes in the money supply explained changes in output levels well. After introducing granger causality test into Money, output and causality, Sims found that the change of Money supply was the significant cause of the change of output in the long run. On the basis of the controversy about the long-term relationship between money and output in foreign countries, this paper makes further research in China. Ding Jia etc in the our country in recent years, currency and an empirical analysis of the relationship of output: 1994-2004 "the Angle from M0, M1, M2 to analyze our country ten years from 1994 to 1994 the money supply to the output influence, using co-integration test and granger causality test the growth rate of M1, M2, and long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the GDP growth rate, and M0, and GDP and is not a strong correlation between. Yang yu in the monetary policy of China and the relationship between output - based on an empirical analysis of the money supply and output, the paper pointed out that in different historical stages of different levels of money with output close degree is not consistent, specifically M0, M1, M2, and the correlation output in the long run is not consistent, and the correlation in fade away. Jia-lin li in the money supply and price in our country, the output of the relationship between the empirical research, the paper builds a monetary supply, price index and GDP index between dynamic model, through the regression analysis results show that the money supply has a significant influence on price, output, and output has a feedback effects on money supply. Zheng tingguo et al. conducted an empirical study on the influence relationship between money and output asymmetry in China by using the smooth transfer vector error correction model and concluded that the influence relationship between money and output in China was asymmetric and also depended on the performance of different economic cycles in China. In China's monetary structure and economic output: an empirical test based on macro-data from 1952 to 2010, xiao weiguo et al. found from the perspective of monetary structure that it is often difficult to reach an acceptable ratio between highly liquid currencies and quasi-currencies in China's monetary system, which has a negative impact on economic development. In terms of financial innovation, most foreign researches focus on the relationship between financial innovation and monetary policy. For example, studies from the 1980s to the early 1990s focused on the effectiveness of financial innovation on monetary policy, the stability of financial innovation on monetary demand, and the in-depth discussion of the impact of financial innovation on monetary policy transmission mechanism in the late 1990s. Mayer and Tobin established the asset selection model from the perspective of money supply, which showed that money supply could not be directly controlled by monetary authorities. Ireland explained the impact of financial innovation on monetary demand from the perspective of monetary demand, and learned that monetary demand, along with financial innovation technology and financial capital stock, would change over time. In addition, Kuttner and Mosser also concluded that the development of financial innovation enhanced the substitutability and liquidity of financial assets and to some extent enhanced the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. In recent years, there are many domestic scholars in the study of the relationship between financial innovation and currency supply and demand, the typical Ding Dongxiang, li-li zhou, Chen Difei, Yin Jizhi, such as people, they are consistent with the research results indicate that obtained from the financial innovation in the very great degree by amplifying leverage effect, influence the stability of the currency demand, weaken the control of the central bank in the money supply; In addition, scholars represented by Yang xiangyang, peng chaoying, Yang wei and Lin hai have deeply studied the impact of financial innovation on the effectiveness of monetary policy, and almost unanimously believe that financial innovation reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy to some extent. In addition, some scholars have studied the impact of financial innovation on the velocity of money circulation and the impact of financial innovation on the intermediate goal of monetary policy. This paper has sorted out relevant literature on financial innovation and the relationship between money and output. It can be seen that, first of all, although methods and perspectives are different, most scholars still support that there is a correlation between money and output. Then, most of the domestic and foreign scholars pay attention to the point in the research of financial innovation is mainly affects whether monetary policy and financial innovation is both currency supply and demand, and there is very little direct impact on financial innovation on monetary - output relationship for empirical research, because of financial innovation is not achieved overnight, it is a gradual advance the process, and is too wide, these reasons are exacerbated by the measure of the degree of difficulty. |
