上海大学生圆圆,半暹降,宝宝多大不会吐奶
| 香港作业：贬值和和巴基斯坦这样的国家之间的关系 这项研究找出了贬值和巴基斯坦这样的国家之间的关系，现在由于最新的全球经济状况，货币贬值是时髦词语。在货币方面，相对于黄金价格或其他国家的货币，贬值的目的是增加占一半以上政府收入的石油销售，而政府收入的价值大幅下降。通过货币贬值，政府代表赚取当地货币双收入，这可以导致更多的社会支出。政府官员也已经认识到，货币贬值可能会导致更高的通胀率，令人担忧的是，巴基斯坦目前的赤字，债务和支出都处于比在以前任何时候更高的危机水平。这么多的有毒资产已从资产负债表的银行转移向政府，现在不只是在这里，而是整个盎格鲁 - 撒克逊经济体 ，主权债务违约是一个重大的风险。 看来，要通过贬值货币的计划来解决赤字。 Relationship Between Devaluation And A Country Like Pakistan Economics Essay The research was carried out to find out the relationship between devaluation and a country like Pakistan, devaluation is buzz word now days due to latest global economy. Devaluation, a substantial drop in the value of a currency, relative to the price of gold or the currency of other countries, aimed to increase government revenue from oil sales, which account for more than half of government income. By devaluing the currency, the government stands to earn double the revenue in local currency, which could allow for more social spending. Government officials also had recognized that the devaluation would likely cause higher inflation, what is worrying was that Pakistan’s current deficits, debts and spending are all at far greater levels than during any of the previous crises. So many toxic assets have been transferred from the balance-sheets of banks to governments, that sovereign debt default – not just here, but throughout the Anglo-Saxon economies – is now a major risk. It seems that the plan to solve the deficit is through devaluing the currency. But Pakistan is on a long-term path of devaluation. Benefits of currency depreciation include temporary increase in manufacturing activity and employment, devaluation is an easy way out for politicians and economic managers who are often looking towards the next election, not the long-run health of the economy. When the rupee fell from Rs 62 to a dollar in June 2008 to Rs 80.7 on June 30, 2009 it was assumed that the worst is over. However, it dropped by another five per cent in the next six months to Rs 85 and the slide is still on. Economic experts pointed out that Pakistan is the only major country facing pressure on its currency. Indian rupee for instance appreciated by three per cent from Rs 47.78 against the dollar on July 1, 2009 to Rs 46.23 on January 22, 2010. Bangladesh taka was at Rs 68.87 on July 1, 2009 and is presently traded at Rs 69 against the dollar. The benefits of lower oil prices (from $140 per barrel to current $75 per barrel) have been absorbed by high rupee devaluation and have provided marginal relief to the consumers. The huge trade and current account deficits accompanied by heavy government borrowing are the main reasons for regular devaluation of the currency. Governments allow their currencies to be devalued through imprudent economic policies. Devaluation causes contraction in economic activities but promoted smuggling as black- market transactions in foreign exchange continue, massive devaluation of the rupee had encouraged brain drain from the country. People have accepted even lower salaries abroad because even from lower savings they could send more money in rupees to their dear ones in Pakistan. Pakistan would lose heavily both as seller and as a buyer. After officially devaluing the national currency the government announced a series of measures to increase the country’s exports, substitute its imports, boost electricity production, and combat price speculation, as purchasing frenzies sprung up in several major cities. The devaluation was necessary in order to “create a new economic order to give incentive to national production and steer away from dependence on imports and move further and further away from oil dependence. the dollar has not seen significant price fluctuations on the parallel market, although traders and public officials have tried to guess whether the government’s measures will create enough incentive to obtain government-issued dollars to push the parallel price down, as the government hopes, the losses from devaluation could be greater than the gains. Real income would decrease at the same level as the percentage of devaluation. The government was stimulating the economy through the budget deficit, but in order to do that, it was necessary to borrow funds. The influence of the state budget on the economy overall has grown significantly. In order to keep the volume of state orders at least at the same level, financial resources are required. Pakistan financial situation has stabilized after the last borrowing, but still in the regular international market it would be much, much more expensive for Pakistan to borrow than from the international lenders. The alternative, to borrow in the international market, is even more unpleasant, because then there would be higher interest rates and a more expensive credit service. If financial resources are not borrowed, then it becomes necessary to reduce the state budget deficit directly, or through the instrument of devaluation would bring about great changes in the economy, which would stimulate activity and growth in certain sectors. Continuing downslide of the rupee had almost halted economic growth in the country, badly hitting all the important areas of economy from agriculture to industry; manufacturing to import of goods; IT sector to students studying abroad for higher education apart from increasing country’s foreign debt servicing liabilities, the rupee had fallen more than 25 percent from May 2008 to December 2009 putting a negative impact on the economy and adversely affecting all sectors including business and consumers. If the government could not take action to control the depreciation of the currency, people would soon face a new wave of dearness and price hike, depreciation of the rupee will also multiplying the cost of doing business and badly hitting industrial, manufacturing and agriculture activities as Pakistan has to import fertilizers, food items and industrial raw material. Only the import of petrol had witnessed an increase of 274 percent in November to December 2009 as compared to the same period of last year due to low refineries production and reduced availability of CNG. If this trend continued, the rupee would come further under pressure as the country was experiencing falling exports and rising imports. Continuous power and gas suspension to the industry had squeezed the possibilities of producing export surpluses due to which the country might face a decline in foreign exchange earnings in coming days, which would further plunge the rupee down. Therefore the government must devise a comprehensive strategy to overcome power problems and increase exports. One solution of enhancing exports was to encourage investment. Many sectors of the economy including power offer great opportunities for local and foreign investors and the government should take all possible measures to ensure complete security as investors need absolute security of their capital. General factors leading to devaluation, persistent adverse trade balance and disequilibrium in balance of payment are the main causes, which compel a country to devalue its currency. Problem Statement The problem was to analyze the impact of devaluation on economy. The thesis shows a causal relationship between effects of devaluation capacity utilization (output) during stabilization in Pakistan having significant negative effect on output. 1.3 Hypotheses Hl: devaluation is significantly linked to real exchange rate. H2: devaluation in one year will cause devaluation in forth coming years. 1.4 Definitions Devaluation. Reduce the official value of (a currency) in relation to other currencies: Exchange rate. The value of one currency for the purpose of conversion to another Capacity utilization rate. The percentage of a company's, industry's or country's production capacity which is actually used, over some period of time also called operating rate. CHAPTER2: LITERATURE REVIEW Applegate (1990) Devaluation was suggested for Zambia by IMF because the foreign exchange will be used on works that had more return to improve export over import, the long run impact will raise real output and employment. The outcomes of empirical studies had been uncertain with some result in a positive impact of devaluation whereas others wind up opposite. Edwards, found that devaluations compact output in the short run, improved output after one year, but were neutral in the long run. The contractionary effects of devaluation, if present, are dependent on structural rigidity in the economy. Thus, they are more likely to be present in the short run than the long run. Krugman and Taylor mention that devaluation should be considered as a measure designed to correct balance of payments problems in the average rather than the short run. The extent and course of the impact of devaluation depend mostly on the extent of replacement of domestically created inputs for imported inputs and domestic labor for imported capital. Since Zambian industry was greatly dependent on imported intermediate inputs and capital, was operating at less than full capacity. That entail that increases in real output can be obtained in the short run without capital investment. Long-run growth depends on either further import of capital goods, which persist to be limited by a harsh shortage of foreign exchange, or replacing other inputs for capital and highlighted less-capital-intensive sectors. First, almost all government borrowing is from the central bank resulting in the lack of alternative markets for government debt. This involve that government deficits mechanically increase the money supply. Second, markets for equities and commercial paper are non present, forcing that firms must finance fixed and working capital by short-term bank credit or retained earnings. A third option for firms was to obtain loans from the "unofficial money market. The magnitude and direction of the effect of devaluation on real GDP depend on several factors, first, in percentage terms; the absolute magnitude of the effect of devaluation on real GDP is less at higher initial values of the exchange rate. Second, the greater the trade deficit the smaller becomes the impact of devaluation on real GDP until it eventually becomes negative. |
