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The recent Asian crisis and a number of currency falls that took place in Argentina, Chile etc. raised the question about the correlation between exchange rate system, the purchasing power of the currency and the state of national economy. There exists an opinion that the undervaluation of euro and the related overvaluation of US dollar, which led to the consolidation of European Union and increased the level of its export, has also negatively affected the developing market economies in Asia and Latin America, and actually was the reason of the financial crisis in these regions. However, after the Bank of European Union decreased the level of euro undervaluation, the market situation has improved [10, p. 83].
Though the process of European integration shows the stable and confident economical growth in his region, a lot of researchers believe that in the long run this economical union will be forced to change into some form of political union, where the countries will represent themselves and introduce separate policies. The possible dangers of the common currency mechanism depend on the state of economy of each member of the union; if one country experiences problems, it leads to the instability in the whole union. The possibility of this dangerous situation can be well illustrated by the example of the UK, which had to leave the ERM system in order to be able to introduce domestic policy and adjust interest rates (which helped to get the UK economy out of the long recession).
The countries that use currency boards, also are exposed to the dangers of instability more than countries with flexible exchange rates: an example of this is the financial crisis in Argentina. Though currency boards have proved their right for existence (for example Hong Kong has been practicing currency boards for almost two decades), the use of currency boards imposes rather high restrictions on the country, the country practicing it needs to have rather strong and sound economy. Argentina, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia – all these countries managed to stop the cycle of high inflation level by using currency boards; but this method can work only as an urgent measure, but is rather inefficient and even dangerous in the long run.
In general, every country and every region in the world have different historical background and therefore have to choose own economical policies. But at the same time, if the world community is becoming more and more integrated, it is natural that the mechanisms of regulating national economy have to be coordinated with the general trend of economical development.
As the managing director of the International Monetary Fund Horst Kohler indicated during the Asia-Europe Meeting of Finance Ministers in 2001: “The process of integration in Europe has not yet ended, and its final outcome is still to be determined… I am not here to suggest that the European experience is a model that Asia can and should copy. Regional developments in Asia should be driven by is own political dynamics and unique historical background. But trading patterns and geography do make it reasonable to think of the creation of an internal market in Asia as possible, future stage in regional cooperation. And why should this not be a basis for greater monetary integration, if that is what people of Asia desire?”
Conclusion结论
In the current world, where globalization, informatization and technical progress play the leading role, old economic factors and variables are being replaced by new ones. The process of globalization, together with the development of communication means and increase of international trade, in the conditions of international labor specialization etc. defines the importance of economical flexibility. Therefore the advantages of the existing fixed exchange rate systems and the measures of pegging the currency to a stronger one are gradually losing their advantage. The choice for stability at the extent of flexibility and independence of monetary and fiscal policy is, in my opinion, no more justified in the new conditions. The importance of shift from the fixed exchange rate system to flexible exchange rates can hardly be overestimated. However, in case of poor economical policy and non-balanced government management of the economy can reduce all the advantages of flexibility. Moreover, as the economical ties between countries strengthen, the responsibility on the government concerning monetary and fiscal policy increases, because now the economical crisis in one country easily develops into world economical depression.
In general, most international economists today state that the benefits of integrating into world financial system and liberalization of financial markets exceed the risks of instability, and the future is promising greater perspectives for the countries whose financial system is based on the floating exchange rate system. The level of financial liberty can be different for different regions of the world, and the policies that can lead them to economical growth can also be different, but the general belief is that the flexible exchange rate system offers better opportunities for successful economical development than fixed exchange rate system.
Literature文献参考
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3. Friedman, Milton. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates." In Friedman. Essays in Positive Economics. 1953.
4. Hansen, Lars, and Robert Hodrick. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Appraisal." Journal of Political Economy 88 (1980): 829-53.
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