鬼怪第七集,叶选宁倒薄,杜达雄yas
当前企业基于财务指标的预警系统,忽视了非金融企业危机的因素,这可能会导致一些列的问题。本文在平衡计分卡的框架下,构建了企业预警结合的金融和非金融模型。采用功效系数法,介绍了预警模型来量化的方法,以帮助企业监控和预报预警警度,及时采取措施,避免财务风险。
目前,企业基于财务指标的预测预警模型忽略了非金融因素可能会导致企业危机，这导致预测预警的及时性不是很好。本文依据框架的效率系数的方法,基于金融和非金融因素构建一个企业预测预警模型。本文还使用效率系数的方法来量化预测预警模型,以帮助企业监控预警程度,预测预警情况,然后采取措施避免金融风险。
此外,在绩效评估方面,美国著名会计教授罗伯特•卡普兰(Robert s。卡普兰)提出了“平衡计分卡”(平衡计分卡,以下简称BSC)的概念,打破了传统的注重财务指标的业绩管理方法。虽然平衡计分卡是一种绩效评估系统,但企业预警模型的建设也有一定的启示:企业危机的特点是金融危机,而金融危机的根源是多方面的,因此,企业预警模型关注财务预警的同时,还应注意引发金融危机。
The enterprise early warning model based on the balanced scorecard to explore The current enterprise early warning system based on financial indicators, ignored the non-financial factors of enterprise crisis, and the timing of the warning is generally poor. Under the framework of the balanced scorecard, this paper constructs the enterprise early warning model of combination of financial and non-financial. Efficacy coefficient method and introducing the early warning model to quantify, to help enterprises to alert degree of the monitoring and forecast warning instance, take timely measures to avoid financial risk. 【 key words 】 enterprise early warning model of the balanced scorecard efficacy coefficient method Research on Enterprise Forecast Warning model -based on Balanced Scorecard WangWei Wuzhou University in 543002 Abstract: Currently ,the Enterprise Forecast Warning model based on financial indicators Ignored the Non-financial factors which may cause enterprise crisis.and the timeliness of Forecast Warning is normally bad. In the framework of the Method of Efficiency Coefficient,This paper build an Enterprise Forecast Warning model Combined by Financial and Non-financia factors. this paper also use the Method of Efficiency Coefficient to quantify the Forecast Warning model ,in order to help the Enterprise Monitoring Warning degree, Forecasting Warning situation, then taking measures to avoiding Financial risks. Key words: Enterprise Forecast Warning model; The Balanced Scorecard; The Method of Efficiency Coefficient At present, the enterprise early warning system is mainly based on the index system of financial early warning system. The essence of which is based on the analysis of financial statements and related business information, monitor the actual financial position deviation degree of the strength of the line, and to take effective measures to control the financial risk warning signal [1]. However, according to the theory of modern enterprise, the enterprise is the ultimate point of the contract. Therefore, the enterprise crisis from the source should be various, might involve contract of each node. In addition, in terms of the performance evaluation, the famous American accounting professor Robert Kaplan (Robert s. Kaplan) proposed the "Balanced Scorecard" (Balanced Scorecard, hereinafter referred to as BSC) concept, breaking the traditional focus on financial indicators of performance management methods. Although the balanced scorecard is a performance evaluation system, but the construction of early warning model of the enterprise also has the certain enlightenment: enterprise crisis characterized by financial crisis, but the root causes of the financial crisis is multifaceted; Therefore, the enterprise early warning model focusing on the financial early warning for at the same time, also should pay attention to trigger a financial crisis, the source of the indicators. This paper based on the financial indicators, in the framework of the balanced scorecard, build enterprise financial and non-financial, quantitative and qualitative combined with long-term enterprise early warning model. I the basic structure of the enterprise early warning model The balanced scorecard performance evaluation of enterprise can be divided into Financial (Financial), Customer (the Customer), Internal business processes (Internal Process), and Learning and growing, Learning and Growth) four dimensions (Perspective). [2] for this reason, the enterprise long-term warning model by financial early warning, early warning customers, internal business process, learning and growing warning four modules. The financial early warning is the core, other modules of the early warning information is the root of detonation next financial early warning. Therefore, customer, internal business process, learning and growing three warning module can be directly to the enterprise early warning system for alarm, but can be by report to enterprise early warning system for financial early warning module, of course, the former is more advantageous to the enterprise to take effective measures to control financial risk in a timely manner. Enterprise early warning model of concrete structure as shown in figure 1. (1) solvency early-warning index 1. The current ratio = current assets/current liabilities. 2. The quick ratio = quick assets/current liabilities. 3. The speed ratio = speeding move assets/current liabilities, speeding fixed assets = money + short-term securities, notes receivable + high credibility, net receivables. 4. Has won multiple interest = total earnings before interest and tax/interest payments. 5. Asset-liability ratio = total debt/total assets. 6. = this disposable cash resources security of cash/number of this period is expected to cash. (2) the operating ability of early warning indicators 1. Inventory turnover (number) = cost of goods sold/inventory average balance. 2. The average inventory occupation = (Σ various inventory occupied by this kind of inventory amount)/Σ all inventories. 3. The accounts receivable turnover ratio = operating income/average balance of accounts receivable. 4. Sales and accounts receivable sensitive coefficient = sales rate of change/accounts receivable turnover. 5. Current assets turnover ratio = operating income/average balance of liquid assets, reflects the enterprise current assets utilization efficiency. 6. The total asset turnover = operating income/average total assets balance, used to evaluate the utilization efficiency of enterprise's total assets. 7. Finished goods inventory backlog rate = (stock inventory - safety reserve) per year on average inventory. 8. The proportion of non-performing assets. (3) the profitability of early warning indicators 1. The operating profit margin = operating profit/revenue. 2. The return on total assets = ebit/average total assets. 3. Return on equity = after-tax profit/net assets, used to measure the use of their own capital efficiency. 4. Cost margins = (operating profit/total cost), the indicators reflect each costs one yuan of the proceeds of the reward. 5. Economic value added (EVA) = earnings before interest and tax - capital takes up several x comprehensive cost of capital. Compared with traditional indicators, taking into account the economic added value the equity capital cost of enterprise, can compare image, intuitively reflect the enterprise's ability to create new value. Economic value added in quantity is equal to the business proceeds after deducting cost of all the elements of surplus value. Therefore, it is a concept of "total factor compensation". [3] (4) the development ability of early warning indicators 1. Operating income growth rate = operating income growth in current/total operating income of the previous period, if the enterprise operating income growth rate over a period of time less than in the growth of market capacity, is an early warning signal. 2. The growth rate of fixed assets = annual net fixed assets/beginning of fixed assets, the index shows that the development of the enterprise scale and the update of the fixed assets. 3. The growth rate of r&d = annual r&d spending at the beginning of the net increase/total r&d spending, the index reflecting the change trend of corporate r&d input and rapid response ability in business innovation. 4. Capital preservation increment rate = the final owner's equity/beginning the owner's equity, the indicators reflect changes in the enterprise net assets after deducting objective factors increase or decrease, is the concentrated reflection of enterprise development ability. (5) cash flow ability index 1. The cash flow ratio = cash inflow/outflow cash, used for analysis and forecast the overall support capability of cash inflows of cash outflows. Index > 1 shows that the needs of the enterprise overall cash payment is guaranteed. 2. Operating cash flows to repay contribution rate = (operating cash flows - maintenance capital expenditure)/maturing debt principal and interest, reflect the enterprise to meet business cases to repay maturing debt levels. The index < 1, shows that the enterprise had to by adding new debt to repay maturing debt or other financing ways. |
