奥巴马空翻,清瑞鸣回溪,葛力姆乔bg
世界上最便宜的电力
上世纪80年代南非是世界是提供最便宜的电自，具有较大的发电能力并具有竞争优势。
然而，今天，这似乎是慢慢成为一个遥远的记忆，多余的电力容量已充分利用。因此Eskom公司一直定期调整其资费价格远远高于通货膨胀率，把负担转嫁给电力消费者。
本文的目的要建立一个微观经济的焦点是从宏观经济的立场分析的电力的弹性价格，重点是集中在短期到中期对经济的影响。
Introduction 简介
South Africa has been renowned for supplying one of the cheapest electricity in the world since the 1980s by having a competitive advantage by having a substantial electricity capacity (World Bank and Eskom pdf).
Today however this seems to be slowly becoming a distant memory as the excess electricity capacity has been fully utilised. As a result Eskom has been regularly adjusting its tariff price well above the inflation rate yearly and this unfortunately put a burden out of the pockets of the electricity consumer.
The purpose of the paper is to establish the fundamental impact of the electricity price surges evident like the 35% in 2009 and 25% this year on the economy. To establish the effect a microeconomic focus is exerted through an analysis of the elasticity of electricity and from a macroeconomic stance the focus is concentrated on the short to medium term impact on the economy.
Price of electricity relative to other countries 相对于其他国家的电力价格
Over the years between 1970-2005 Eskom managed to show a price decrease in real terms of 11 percent which has been assisting rapid economic growth in the economy (Van Heerden, Blignaut, Jordaan 2008,3). The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution of electricity has been found to be slightly below 4% and businesses traditionally experienced electricity to show a small contribution to the total cost of a firm (Van Heerden, Blignaut, Jordaan 2008,2).
However in 2007 it became evident that as warned in the 1998 White Paper on Energy policy that consumer demand exceeded electricity supply forcing Eskom to implement supply-side projects through a planned R385 Billion capital expansion programme (Electricity in South Africa 2009,2). This resulted in the consumer bearing the cost through price hikes of electricity well above inflation.
Price Elasticity of electricity in SA 电力价格弹性
The sensitivity of the usage of electricity by the consumer is measured by the relation of the demand for electricity to towards disposable income and price (Park,M 200?,105). Table 2 below gives an elasticity measure of the price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand.
Table 2 suggests as stated by Van Heerden etl. ( 2008,2) that the South African consumer demand for electricity has been relatively insensitive to price changes up until the period of 2006. It is visible that demand is generally insensitive towards price change with price elasticity occurring in most cases to be below 1 among various sectors which indicates inelasticity of demand. On the other hand elasticity of demand towards disposable income shows to be relatively income reactive with most sectors having income elasticity larger than 1 indicating elastic income elasticity.
The demand for electricity is considered to be inelastic and desire for additional electricity use would be stimulated mostly by the motivation to increase income variables than being influenced by price. However the electricity rate increases has changed this conception of thinking as input costs causes the final products produced by industries to rise.
Effect of Electricity Price increases on the Economy 电价上涨对经济的影响
Fifteen percent of South Africa's GDP is composed of energy, where large energy consumption from various sectors in the country employ an estimated 250000 job opportunities ( ). Therefore a surge in electricity costs would have an impact on inflation and therefore impact employment.
Inflationary influence on the economy 通货膨胀对经济的影响
Electricity and other fuels has a 1.87% influence in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) whilst the Producer Price Index (PPI) which assesses the cost of production weights 6,86%( Stats SA).
Inflation is defined by a continuous surge in the prices of goods and services in an economy (basic Macro,11). When an input cost like electricity surges a spiral effect causes the price of goods and services to increase. The effect on the economy in terms of an AS-AD model would be that the aggregate supply (AS) would shift upwards due to the increase in price levels and this is the of cost-push inflation. (Blanchard+Dornbush).
With an unemployment figure of 24.3% (fourth quarter 2009) , South Africa has a large poor population in its economy. Eskom reacted by increasing the amount of free power to the poor by an additional 20kw, but the poor will still lose economic wellbeing as the cost of electricity is factored in other consumer products(Chris Hart).
The labour market impact 劳动力市场影响
During rising inflation the workforce of South Africa in alliance with their trade unions seek higher wage deals. Upon higher wage conditions being met employers seek to cut jobs opportunities for the unemployed as the employed workers benefit.
The determination on output in the economy 经济产出的确定
For a economy to prosper the demand for goods and services from the country should increase, which would lead to a higher production.The question is can the production meet the demand. Factors like employment and productivity + imput costs.
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