汕尾市海丰县,奥巴马 罗姆尼,桨组词
自20世纪30年代大萧条之后，各国采取了进口替代战略。其目的是在本地生产出的产品，而不是进口。因此，他们提供了许多激励保护的措施- 免税原材料获取，垄断地位高层次的形式，而进口限制措施 - 在主办国来吸引外国生产商。然而，在进口替代战略的支持者的预期下，高就业率，减少进口和有利的汇率速率的好处从来没有实现过。相反，外国人遣返利润，沉迷于资本密集的生产将会导致本国货币和高冗余性的贬值。 随着二战的结束，人们有了一个全球共识：国家只有在合作中找到他们的利益。1947年建立了贸易总协定和关税体制，以促进自由贸易，出口被视为经济增长的主要驱动力。在当前的全球化时代，贸易被认为是强大的经济工具。 The Import Substitution And Export Oriented Strategies Economics Essay After the Great Depression in the 1930s, countries adopted the import substitution strategy. The aim was to produce the products locally rather than having to import them. Thereby, they provided many incentives in the form of high level of protection- duty-free access to raw materials, monopoly status, and import restriction measures- to attract foreign producers in host countries. However, the benefits that proponents of the import-substitution strategy expected- high employment rate, reduced imports and favourable exchange rate- never materialised. Instead, foreigners repatriated profits and indulged in capital intensive production entailing depreciation of the local currency and high redundancy. As the World War II came to an end, there was a global consensus: countries foresaw their benefits only in working together. The General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs 1947 was established to promote free trade and exports were seen as the main drivers of economic growth. In the current era of globalisation, trade is believed to be the tool to a robust economy. Eventually, instead of debating on which strategy commands the most benefits, the importance of export promotion and expansion has been continuously stressed. The debate on whether export-oriented policies have the ability to spur economic growth has received much attention, although the evidence is mixed and inconclusive (Xu et al. 2009) [1] . Both the theoretical and empirical literature disagrees on the precise relation between exports and growth. Exports form part of the trade mechanism of an economy. Mercantilists, two centuries ago, have stressed on international trade. The aim of mercantilists was to accumulate gold reserves. Standards of living and economic growth and development were not always their concern. They supported the export promotion strategy as they saw trade surpluses as the only positive outcome of international trade for a country’s economy. Since the mercantilists, classical economists saw that trade stimulated growth in mainly two ways. To begin with, exports expansion allowed for a more optimal distribution of resources and subsequently improved productivity. Economic growth was, thus, achieved. Furthermore, the classical school believed that through foreign trade, one country could gain raw materials and equipment which it could not produce. Those provided the material basis for economic development. The most famous theories are exports of surplus of Adam Smith, comparative advantage of David Ricardo, and “trade is the engine of economic growth” of D.H. Robert Morrison. All these theories interpreted the relationship to some extent but ignored that the international environment is complex and rule-less. In his theory on exports of surplus, Adam Smith stated that by being able to export the products of excess capacity that are not demanded in the home market, or simply extending the market, the productivity of the nation increases, thus resulting in an increased wealth of a nation (Kibritçioglu, 2002 p. 4-5). Smith ([1776] 1937:415), claimed that Exports, therefore, played the role of a “vent-for-surplus”. In addition, Smith identified two other important gains from trade, i.e. exports, mainly absolute cost gain and productivity gain. Ricardo (1817) [2] ascertained that exports will allow specialisation as a country will produce and trade in those goods in which it has competitive advantage. The economy will, hence, earn the benefits of trade. Large scale production will be possible and thereby economies of scale will occur. In the neoclassical era, Keynes included exports as a component in this aggregate demand function: Y = C + I + X – M Where Y= output in real terms; C= consumption; I= Investment; X= exports and M=imports. Keynesian economists described exports as one of the main drivers of growth whereby an increase in exports will lead to economic growth. In the 1920s, as Canada attained economic growth by exporting primary products such as fish, minerals, fur, lumber amongst other, Macintosh and Innis propounded the staple growth theory. They were of the opinion that exports of a raw material in which a comparative advantage generated economic growth. Capital and labour will flow in the country and productivity will increase. Other benefits will be in terms of innovation and technological development. Opponents of the theory suggest that relying on the export of a commodity constitute a development trap and that the theory held only for countries rich in resources. Romer (1986; 1990), Lucas (1988, 1990) put forth a theory that exports could provide access to advance technology and thus, promote growth. Spill over effects and external stimulation will occur as trade takes place. Countries owning advanced technologies would through exports, gradually, transfer their technologies and allow others to utilise them. As exports promote technology, long-term economic growth can be ensured. Also a broader market is available whereby there are more frequent exchange of information and increased competition. There will be productivity gains. To add, they stated that in the presence of increasing returns to scale, an investment process may generate a sustained growth in per capita income without causing a decline in the marginal productivity of capital to the level of the discount rate. Krugman (1979) stated that the increase in demand for output of a country through the growth of exports allows the exploitation of economies of scale for an economy. Also, optimal allocation of resources between materials production sector and knowledge production sector are improved. In this manner, exports served to promote economic growth. Furthermore, Corden (1992 [3] ) identified 5 ways in which a country’s foreign trade could affect the economy: the revenue effect, the capital accumulation effect, the substitution effect, the income distribution effect and the weighted elements effect. Cumulated together, these effects resulting from exports strengthen the economy gradually. Lewis (1954) through his dual sector model- a capitalist segment, i.e. a modern industrial and non-capitalist segment, i.e., a transitional agricultural- emphasised that the industrial part promoted economic growth by absorbing surplus labour from the agricultural segment and making profits. Also, increased export earnings will ease constraints on growth by enhancing the capacity to import essential goods in the form of intermediate and capital goods. Thus export expansion promotes capital accumulation and consequently economic growth. Nevertheless, neoclassical trade theory put forth that economic growth may itself granger-cause exports in contrast with the normal export-led growth. Economic growth affects the supply side, i.e., factor endowments, of an economy positively. Consequently, the demand for exports grows, thus, increasing the local production. The country becomes more competitive on the international front. On the other hand, radicals suggest that exports from less developed countries to industrialised nations constitute an important mechanism to exploit the poorer countries. Empirical research was much centred on this aspect of the export expansion hypothesis. The above analysis of theoretical literature indicates that economists in favour of the expansion of the export sector advocate that the latter is the most efficient pillar of a country. An economy benefits through economies of scale arising as increased exports allow for specialisation in production. Firms are driven by global competition and are forced to be as efficient as possible. Hence, profits are high and employees are well paid. Standard of living in countries prone to export expansion is improved. In the same line, other theorists support that exports enable transfer of technology between trade partners. Innovations taking place on the eastern side of the globe, e.g. in Japan, China or Korea is accessed by economies worldwide. It should be stressed that technology is primordial for developing countries. Exports make inflow of foreign capital and technology possible through its receipts. Export expansion is seen by theorists as an instrument to achieve economic growth. To critically assess the theories acclaiming the merits of the export expansion hypothesis, several studies have been conducted. There are mainly three important extant of literature: researchers have, in the first place, advocated the export expansion hypothesis; other colleagues have questioned its merits while many have emphasised the positive effects given some conditions. The theories discussed above are supported by various empirical studies. Export expansion contributed to economic growth in various ways. Using cross sectional data and ordinary least squares, researchers, have found that exports is a strong determinant of economic growth. Balassa (1978) [4] concluded in favour of the export expansion hypothesis by directly weighing export-oriented strategies against import-substitution policies: |
