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5 Recommendation and suggestion推荐和建议
There are some critical views on HS2 project as below.
At first, the project cost was claimed about £33billion, but experts research suggested the project would expend over £70billion in the end (Stephen Robinson, September 2013). It is not worth for British spending £40 on superfast railway, which other European countries obtained many high-speed connections and British possess better train services (Stephen Robinson, September 2013).
Analyses from the confidence trap. Some realities about recent environment are ignored. In instance, British still suffered from the economic crisis and investment on HS2 will produce large pressure on budget. As the result, taxpayers feel dissatisfied with government. At second, government eager to get support in public and the project seems exactly a way to spread influence and develop political policy in success. However, many high-speed lines exist in other European countries already and British still suffered from the economic crisis and not recovered yet. In fact, some suggestions for government as blew. At first, it is necessary for departments to gather information and data with exactly and widely. At second, analyses of information and data need work with rational attitude. Analysis from the organization causes of escalation that the basic value and purpose for government is to gain support and spread influence in public. Besides, generation display as the main role of taxpayer, it is necessary for government to try to find and keep the balance between organization value with individual.
At second, because of HS2, large amounts of people and packages would transfer in Heathrow airport, as the result, the airdrome under great traffic pressure and turn to be more congestion (John Kay, August 2013). Analyses based on the economic causes of escalation. Though HS2 project convenient plenty of visitors, however, it will bring a large of pressure for the transfer station. As the result, government has to not only invest on the project, but also need make penalty payments to sub-contractors. At the same time, central government is forced to pay the local departments’ legal costs for high-speed train maintenance.
At third, demand for railway in the further is uncertain. For example, the rail demand increased with double during the next twenty-five years and lots of strategies seems more flexible.(John Kay,August2013). Compared with building a new high-speed line, running of longer trains, advanced yield management utilization and the existing lines’ product capability development seem more helpful (John Kay, August 2013). According to the sunk cost theory and framing effect, there are some recommendations and suggestions as below. Though the future demands for HS2 project existed uncertainly. It is still necessary for government to devote some resources and capital on the project in advance. Thus, government will be faced with some risks. Based on the framing effect, there are two ways for departments. Firstly, to avoid the risk, government could stop to continue the project and keep the exist benefits. Secondly, regardless with negative feedback of HS2 project, government could accept already lost with risk seeking.
Conclusion结论
Decision-makers choose to quit a project or not depend on the escalation and there are four causes of escalation, as psychological, social, economic and organizational. For psychological causes, confidence trap leads decision-makers feel fear of success. The more sunk cost occurred, the more difficult for decision-makers to quit. As frame effect, people either choose to avoid risk with a few profits gained, or prefer at the risk of lost to gain more benefits. Competition involved in social causes, in order to win competition, decision-makers turn to be deeper entrapment. Penalty payments to sub-contractors, costs of ripping out work and people are forced to pay the other party’s legal costs involved in economic causes, as the result, decision-makers have to increase investment then more escalation of commitment. Organization causes present that project identified with similarity value and purpose and it is difficult for decision-makers to quit as project develop closely connection.
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