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PESTEL和SWOT分析案例参考(3)

时间:2014-09-24 16:59来源:www.szdhsjt.com 作者:yangcheng 点击:
The larger river vessels are tug-drawn barges. Official estimates put the fleet capacity at about 420,000 tons with speeds ranging from 2 to over 20 km an hour. Smaller, wooden barges are mostly priva

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The larger river vessels are tug-drawn barges. Official estimates put the fleet capacity at about 420,000 tons with speeds ranging from 2 to over 20 km an hour. Smaller, wooden barges are mostly privately owned.
 
Ports
 
Vietnam has eleven major seaports. Ho Chi Minh City serves most of the South and now boasts modern container loading facilities. Just a few hours’ drive from Hanoi, Hai Phong serves much of the North. Given the rapid rise in trade volume, increasing port capacity is a national priority.
 
Airports and Civil Aviation
 
There are three international airports: Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi and Da Nang. Currently, the Government has significantly upgraded international airports to handle the increase in the volume of traffic associated with Vietnam's invigorated economy. A new international terminal of the Tan Son Nhat airport in Ho Chi Minh City, capable of handling up to 10 million passengers a year was opened in December 2007. Noi Bai airport in Hanoi was upgraded, enlarged and completed for operation in 2002, construction of a second terminal is expected to start in October 2008 and completed in two years. Four new international airports are planned to be constructed in Phu Quoc, Dong Nai, Lao Cai and Quang Ninh provinces. Preparations for the new Long Thanh International Airport, 40 kilometers from Ho Chi Minh City in Dong Nai province is underway. The airport is scheduled to open in 2010 and by 2015 it will be further expanded to reach an annual transportation capacity of 80 to 100 million passengers, becoming one of the biggest airports in the region. In addition, there are 16 other domestic airports around the country.
 
3.2 Economic Opportunities
 
Foreign Affairs
 
At present, Vietnam has established diplomatic relations with 168 countries, and it has economic and trading relations with about 165 countries. Vietnam joined the United Nations in 1977.
 
Vietnam became an official member of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1995, and has concluded a cooperation agreement with the European Community. Relationships with multi-national financial institutions such as the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have been re-established. Viet Nam has been participating in the ASEAN Free Trade Area (“AFTA”) since 1996 and became a member of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) in 1998. Vietnam became an official member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 11 January 2007. In January 2008, the country started a two year term as an elected non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.
 
Vietnam signed the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the United States in 2000. Besides aspects of international trade, the BTA covers a variety of other areas, including intellectual property rights, trade in services, development of investment relations, business facilitation and the obligation to ensure transparency of laws and regulations. The BTA essentially constitutes a commitment by both countries to open their markets to each other.
 
Intellectual Property
 
In recent years, the Government has taken various measures to increase the legal protection of intellectual property and has created an environment of respect for intellectual property as compared to other neighboring countries. Intellectual property rights are protected by the Civil Code (1995 and 2005), the Law on Intellectual Property (2005) and a host of subordinate legislation.
 
Vietnam is a long-time signatory to the Paris Convention, the Madrid Agreement on International Trademark Registration, and the Patent Cooperation Treaty (“PCT”) and became a member of the World Intellectual Property Organization in 1976. On 27 June 1997, Vietnam entered into an Agreement on copyrights with the US. According to the Viet Nam-US Bilateral Trade Agreement, Vietnam is under the obligation to adhere to the Berne Convention.
 
The National Office of Intellectual Property (“NOIP”) is the authority responsible for the registration of industrial property and for the resolution of disputes with regard to industrial property in the first instance. Foreign organizations and individuals seeking to register their industrial ownership should file their applications through an authorized agent, who will transfer their application to the NOIP. The Office of Copyright Protection under the Ministry of Culture, Sport and Tourism has also been established and is responsible for the protection of copyright. Works may be registered with the Office of Copyright Protection; however, registration is not a prerequisite for copyright protection.
 
Currently, patents are protected for a period of 20 years. A certificate of utility solutions may be granted for 10 years. A certificate of industrial design is granted for 5 years and may be renewed every 5 years. However, the total effective period of a certificate cannot exceed 15 years. Certificates of trademarks are granted for 10 years with no restrictions on the number of renewals.
 
Investment Guarantees
 
The Government of Vietnam guarantees fair treatment for investors. Capital and other legal assets of investors will not be expropriated or confiscated by law or administrative measures and businesses with foreign-invested capital will not be nationalized. Foreign investors are allowed to remit abroad investment capital and profits, loan principal and interest, and other legal proceeds and assets.
 
Expatriates working for businesses with foreign-invested capital or for a business cooperation contract are permitted to remit their income abroad. The Vietnam government respects intellectual and industrial property rights and the interests of foreign investors relating to technology transfers into Vietnam.
 
3.3 Economic Risks
 
Global Finance Crisis is the hottest issues that people discuss most in this few years. The global financial crisis that started from the United States raises a very broad impact to Vietnam.
 
Inflation
 
Inflation has been in double digits since 2007 and peaking at 28% in August 2008. The fiscal deficit accounted for 4.5-5% GDP in 2008 while trade deficit reached US$17.5 billion (or over 20% of GDP), a level that signals vulnerability to a sudden drop in external demand (Figure 2). A high rate of investment combined with a sizeable fiscal deficit resulted in rapid growth in aggregate demand in the first half of 2008. Massive capital inflows generated asset price inflation, especially in real estate and land prices.
 
Export Decline
 
Vietnamese exports have suffered the strongest negative impact. With economic problems in the US, EU and Japan, which together account for more than 60% of Vietnamese exports, Vietnam saw a significant decline in export revenues. Vietnam’s export revenues fell 6.5% in November 2008 and a further 24% drop in January 2009 (year-on-year) (Figure 3). Orders for manufactured exports including garments, footwear and furniture dropped quickly, while seafood5 producers are also under pressure. The decline of orders has caused great difficulties for exporting companies, many of them are at risk of closing down.6 Vietnamese exports’ growth is forecasted to decline from 30% in 2008 to 13% in 2009.
 
Unemployment
 
Unemployment has worsened. At February 28, 2009, 66,700 workers (out of 45 million workers) lost their jobs in 2008 with national unemployment rate of 4.65%. Thus, it is estimated that over 80,000 workers lost their jobs nationwide in 2008. The latest forecast of Vietnam Labor and Employment Agency estimates the figure to hit 400,000 nationwide in 2009. Job cuts are rising especially in big cities11 with industrial, processing and exporting zones. The situation may worsen in 2009 with an unemployment rate of 5% and at a projected economic growth of 6.5%. High unemployment has already affected domestic demand and consumers’ sentiment in Vietnam, which are bearish in recent months.
 
4.0 Culture and Social Analysis
 
Vietnam is a country located in Southeast Asia, Vietnam is a culturally rich country whose distinct history played a role in the development of the modern day state. Vietnamese practices of Confucianism and showing reverence towards ancestors are evidence of China’s historical influence on Vietnamese society. Vietnam became an independent state in the tenth century but was colonized by the French in the mid 1800s. Vietnam gained independence in the mid twentieth century but still retains traces of French culture which are visible in the way people communicate verbally and nonverbally. Though Vietnam has struggled over the past century through colonial rule, the Vietnam War and recent economic upheavals, it is now rebuilding itself to be able to compete on a global scale. Having a comprehensive understanding of Vietnam’s unique cultural values and traditions can allow the company to develop strong and successful business relationships with Vietnamese counterparts.
 
4.0.1 Language
 
Vietnamese is the official language, although there are distinct northern, central and southern dialects and accents. It is a tonal language, with each syllable; there are six different tones that can be used, which change the definition and it often makes it difficult for foreigners to pick up the language.


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